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Introduction

Foresight is forward thinking. Business foresight is thinking of future conditions or the situations or the problems or changes that take place in business, state, country, world that might effect the business either adversely or favorably. By thinking like this the businessman, managers or the decision makers can search for the new businesses that can raise in coming days opening doors for new opportunities, act before in hand to save the business from the contingencies etc.

Business Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge which will help social, economic and environmental improvements based on well founded projections and effect business. However, it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient methodology to conduct Foresight, it is also vitally important to ensure that Foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making. Only in this way can its maximum benefits be obtained. Foresight aims to provide challenging visions of the future, to ensure effective strategies now. It can be done by possessing a core of skills in science-based futures projects and having unequalled access to leaders in government, business and science.

Complete Budgeting, Forecasting and Projections is part of foresight. Foresight brings together complete budgeting, re-forecasting and projections functionality in one comprehensive, high-performance system. From short-term budgeting to long-range projections, from periodic re-forecasting to high-level "what-if" scenarios, ForeSight provides the intelligence you need to plan ahead. One integrated, intuitive system combines time saving budgeting tools; audit, control and consolidation capabilities; and powerful forecasting of revenue, expenses and cash flow.

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While talking of business foresight it is necessary to know how to

Forecast the Future

• See Where You're Headed. Develop meaningful projections based on

accurate historical lease and financial information. Create realistic plans

and strategies grounded in sound assumptions and accurate calculations.

See where your business is going, access the impact of alternatives and

look for emerging trends.

• Speculative Leases Consider what might happen when an existing lease

expires. What if the tenant leaves, renews with certain assumptions or

exercises an option? Project the impact of leasing commissions and tenant

improvements, as well as other leasing costs such as a moving allowance or

free rent. You may also apply a blended set of speculative assumptions.

• Global Assumption Scenarios At either the workbook or assumption

level, you can adjust any period for inflation and market rates, downtime,

tenant improvements and other leasing costs. The system can apply

any assumptions to all tenants in question, eliminating the need to

continually repeat setup procedures.

• Re-Forecasting Starting with actual year-to-date information, you can

quickly produce revised forecasts for the current year. Choose to redistribute

timing variances, using a variety of distribution methods. You may also

re-forecast each month separately. Intuitive Reporting

• A Full Range of Options Develop forecasts, budgets and projections for periods beyond twelve, creating multiple projection workbooks for the same range of periods. Develop projection workbooks for an unlimited number of years in the future.

• Reporting Quickly generate variance reports. Add variance notes

on the fly. Then store your notes in the database and use as needed to augment

variance reporting.

• Comparisons and Analysis Compare actual billings to budgets by suite,

then compare revenue and capital expenditures by category. The system

also includes square footage audit reports, proforma cash flows by budget

type and other essential reports to meet the full range of forecasting needs.

Foresight is, first and foremost, about engendering a culture of forward thinking, one in which it becomes natural for decisionmakers at all levels in an organisation to be constantly looking ahead to t r y and anticipate the changes in the global market. These could, for example, be developments in science and technology, or perhaps changes in the economic, social or political environment in which the sector operates. In particular Foresight is about developing alternative scenarios of what the future may bring and then investigating the threats they imply and how one might arm against them, but more importantly the opportunities they provide and how one can prepare to exploit them.

Foresight is a method for improving long-term decision-making, especially for innovation policy. It involves looking systematically into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society, with the aim of identifying areas for strategic research and emerging technologies likely to produce the greatest economic and social benefits. Foresight enables strategic planners to enter the realm beyond what is normally predictable, and to evaluate key long-term uncertainties and their implications for current decisions.

Foresight has become well established in several countries, making a critical input to national science and technology policy. Implementing it at the regional level has been more difficult - but here, too, it can influence policy-makers, academics and enterprises.

Not only foresighting the future is important but also coordinating between foresight and policy planning is also very important. But in this process the following questions will be raised

ɨ When and how should foresight be embedded in policy-decisions and when should it be conducted at arms length?

ɨ How to gauge the impact of foresight on decision-shaping and decision-making?

ɨ What needs do policy planners have that might be met by foresight?

ɨ How might policy planners improve the use and effectiveness of foresight?

ɨ What more might foresight practitioners do to meet policy needs?

ɨ How can foresight be better integrated with other strategic policy intelligence - technology assessment, forecasting and evaluation?

"Indian MBAs lack business acumen

A couple of years ago, when Suman Modwel, Professor of International Business Policy at Paris-based Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees (ENPC), was in India to deliver an inaugural lecture, he made a few observations. These gave him an insight into why Indian students enrol in an MBA.

``I posed two questions to a class of hundred-odd MBA students. First, I asked how many of them wanted to take up a great job with an MNC and earn a lot of money. They all raised their hands, recalls Modwel, who is also the International Dean, MBA, ENPC, Kochi. ``And how many of you want to create great jobs and then earn a lot of money. His second question was greeted with dead silence. This clearly shows how lop-sided the approach of both the people teaching and studying business in India is.

According to Modwel, there is an urgent need to change the mindset of the management education-seekers here. ``People see an MBA as a job-seeking ticket and not a value-addition. They lack business acumen.

Entrepreneurial inclination is missing in Indian students. ``People here complain that due to recession there is a freeze in recruitment. Why arent they studying management with the purpose of turning around their family businesses or setting up one on their own?

Modwel is of the view that Indian MBA courses are in need of a revamp. According to him, an MBA program should be able to churn out economically-meaningful managers. ``The managers should be able to contribute to the economy, whether they start out as management trainees or entrepreneurs. There is a need for Indian business schools to beef up the quality of the faculty, even if that means inviting people from outside.

Most business schools abroad believe that greater the number of visiting faculty, the better it is for the institute.

Business Acumen

Business acumen is a sense of the business which can foresee the success of business. With business acumen you can harness effectively the companys total performance. In todays highly competitive environment, managers and specialists require a high level of business sense. Functional expertise is not enough; they need to be totally business orientated. Key people must be able to understand and use financial data to plan and make strategic and operational choices and decisions to develop a profitable business.

It is skills that are to be possessed by a businessman a manger etc to foresee and conduct the business but why they need business acumen is the question.

Managers make a lot of decisions every day. Most of them are not so easy to determinate, because what you decide is the future. As manager they are going to make a lot of choice for their company. Sense of future is so important to Business Acumen Practice.

Now arises the question Why is Building Business Acumen so critical for a business?

Every employee can and must develop the business acumen to understand, at the most basic level, what it takes for a business to make money. It teaches participants how businesses make money. How a business makes money.

The five key fundamentals of how a business really runs

Every business is the same inside. Business acumen requires understanding the building blocks of money making and then learning to apply them...daily.

1. Cash How do we generate it, how is it used and why is it so critical?

. Margin How do you make Gross Margin meaningful to everyone?

. Velocity What is the centerpiece to business acumen?

4. Growth Do your employees know how and why youre growing?

5. Customers They need a simple reason to buy from you? Do you know it?

After knowing why business acumen is needed it is now to know where it is essential.

Business acumen is greatly needed in matters of Finance. Financial management is much more than an accounting functions, it is a critical link to every business area within an organisation. Every employee is a decision maker. But most employees -- even many with senior management responsibilities -- are unaware of the financial implications of the choices they make. Financial awareness, never mind acumen, is surprisingly low in even the most sophisticated organizations.

Business acumen of a manager lies in

· Overviewing of Financial Management - the cash cycle;

· Understanding P&L and Balance Sheets;

· Managing Cash Flow, Working Capital and Assets;

· Measuring Business Performance - Ratio Analysis; and

· Understanding Profitability and Costs.

· Understanding the Role of Strategic Management.

The Financial Acumen helps to

ɨ Rapidly improve cash flow by hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars

ɨ Ensure widespread ownership of business objectives, eliminating the entitlement mentality

ɨ Identify the most critical financial and operational results

ɨ Provide basic knowledge of the organizations business and finances

ɨ Deepen employees understanding of how their jobs link to overall business objectives and how they can help to achieve them

Business acumen is greatly needed in Strategy. Todays business environment has created a climate of change in most organisations. Downsizing, process improvement, improved customer focus and reengineering are refinement efforts that have emerged from this climate of organisational change. But these efforts can only work if managers learn how to lead the change process.

While discussing the business acumen it is very important to know The Key learning objectives

· Evaluate how businesses must change to sustain competitive advantage.

· Promote organisational excellence through customer satisfaction, process improvement, employee commitment, and strategic leadership.

· Build, manage and support teams to drive improvement efforts.

· Develop and sustain an organisational architecture to support systematic improvement.

· Identify roadblocks and pitfalls in the change effort and develop strategies to overcome them.

Business acumen is more vitally needed in Marketing.A businessman or a manager should have the acumen to

· Show how a properly aligned corporate strategy creates value

· Identify and implement a competitive strategy

· Understand how each decision and policy of a company has multiple impacts, which affects the companys ability to fulfill its strategy

· Manage the often conflicting needs between customers and shareholders· Adjust tactical implementation in response to competitors actions

· Understand how tactical decisions and policies impact a companys profitability

· Witness how functional decisions influence financial statements

· Realize the trade-offs of short-term reactionary spending vs. long-term investment

· Identify competitors strategies via analysis of financial statements

· Manage customer segments more effectively

· Understand varying customer preferences by service line

· Identify the growth methods used to manage customers - new customer acquisition, increased usage, and customer retention

· Understand how to satisfy customers in changing market sectors

· Analyse the financial risks and strategic benefits associated with a major, single-source bid

Here below is a comparision between the traditional training and the strategy aligned business acumen.

Strategy-Aligned Business Acumen and Development Traditional Training and Development

ɨ Framework for strategy-aligned decision-making

ɨ Tools and techniques for initiative prioritization

ɨ Understanding how day to day work impacts the bottom line

ɨ Integrates training and development with other HR systems

ɨ Vertical integration with strategy and measures

ɨ Horizontal integration with other HR systems ɨ Individual programs without a clear link to strategy or each other

ɨ Provides learning but does not eliminate unnecessary initiatives

ɨ Unclear link to day-to-day work, impact on the bottom line

Sub-topic

Technological foresight.

In the modern global economy the aspect that is changing at the speed of the nano seconds is Technology. Since the Second World War, technology has been a powerful engine driving economic development. During the Eighties, economists of the new growth theory school showed that science and technology were important determinants of economic growth. Rapid technological change and the development of global markets for technology-based products have created a unstable environment for countries and companies. The increasing sophistication and complexity of technology used in a wide range of products has made it more and more difficult for even the largest corporations to anticipate these changes.

Technology development is taking place very rapidly and is greatly effecting the functioning of business and its future. Technological goods are supposed to be more cost effective and greatly accepted by the customers. But with the rapidly changing technology it becomes very vital on the part of the businessman to possess technological foresight. Because updating with the modern technology becomes more costly and hard to be adapted. So the businessman should possess the technological foresight so that he can make qualitative decisions in adapting the technology suitable for his business in all forms.

Technology Foresight is neither about delivering probabilistic predictions of the future technologies (Technology Forecasting) nor is about anticipating the impacts of future technologies in today's society (Forecasting Assessment), rather Technology Foresight is a Systematic Process to visualize Science, Technology, Industry, Economy and society in the long run, with the purpose of identifying technologies that can generate economic and social benefits.

Technology Foresight is highly complex due to the wide scope of investigation, the lack of a precise definition of the concept of technology, the arbitrary nature of selection criteria, and the inherent risk of overlooking a significant technology. Nevertheless, Technology Foresight is necessary, and even indispensable, to guide both public authorities and private companies in the strategic decision making process.

Public authorities and the business community need a specific tool to predict technological change, to define their strategy, and to take the best decisions. Technological Foresight is one such tool.

Technology Foresight is used by many countries in the Science and Technology priority-setting process. It can be defined as a systematic process to identify key future technologies in order to aid in policy making, planning, and decision-taking. Although the objectives of national Technological Foresight studies differ, one or more of the following are found in most studies. These are create a common vision for society, identify future technologies, guide future technological development, and provide intelligence.

Technology Forecasting is forecasting the Future State of technology, extent of use probabilistic predictions of future technological developments.

Technology Assessment Consequences of deploying new technology including secondary effects. Anticipating future societal impacts of known new and existing technologies. Technology Foresight Determination of demand related technological profile of possible/probable/ preferred futures.

New trends can be both a threat and an opportunity for business. Companies need to be able to anticipate the future in order to foresee new market opportunities and possible new technologies that might affect the products, services and customers and thus the strategies of the companies them selves.

Foresight can provide tools and techniques to help businesses think ahead into the future. It can enhance regional networks of forward thinking businesses, helping them to learn from each others experiences, as well as provide information on future opportunities and threats facing the countries key sectors.

Specifically Technology Foresight can help

 Identify the direction of the business

 Get new perspective on future markets and changes in customers needs

 Look beyond the normal sector boundaries

 Plug into networks which can open up new markets and ideas for improving existing products and services

 Get direct access to knowledge and scientific, technical and managerial expertise which can help develop new products or exploit new markets

 Get advanced warning of emerging technologies

 Make better investment decisions by having a clearer idea of future possibilities and reducing the uncertain

A central purpose of TF is both to prepare for and try to affect the future. Therefore, the estimation of future tendencies in order to early carry out all necessary actions to influence and adjust future events is an important ingredient of TF. The foresight process involves the specification of the possibilities generated by technological development and also a definition of the demands that this puts on several sectors of the society. Based on that identification, TF defines the most efficient relationships between technological possibilities and the current economical and social needs of the community. Moreover, the organization and carrying through of TF has a value in itself since it brings representatives from the industry, academy and public sectors together in the search for a common view of the future.

Technology Foresight Methods

The TF studies around the world differ both with respect to preferred methodologies, objectives and their temporal horizons. These are chosen accordingly to the characteristics, needs and data available. The foresight methodologies can be classified in either qualitative or quantitative techniques, however evidence shows that the most industrialized countries had chosen the qualitative approach by adopting among all techniques, the Delphi method, expert panels, scenarios building and identification of critical technologies.

A central objective of Technology Foresight is usually to identify technologies expected to have a strong influence on the future development and well-being of a business. In some countries, for example the United States and France, the principal goal of TF has been to elaborate lists of critical technologies. Other countries, like Japan and Germany, have chosen to identify critical technologies employing the Delphi technique.

The common criteria in the selection of critical technologies is their potential to stimulate or influence economic and social development, the scientific and technological knowledge base, and national security and in turn effect the business. As a matter of example, the studies in these countries are relatively unanimous in their conclusions about the fields of technology that will be most important in the future`

 Information technology (components, applications, networks, multimedia)

 Health and medical care (medical technology, biotechnology)

 Production technology (automation/robotics, process technology, micro/nano production, sensors)

 Materials technology (ceramics, composites, electronic and photonic materials)

 Environmental technology (clean processes, waste management, recycling, global environment)

 Energy technology (efficiency, generation, renewable energy)

The majority of TF programmes have also concluded those multidisciplinary fields such as phonetics, bionics and bio-electronics will be among the important fields to pay attention to in the future.

Implications of Technology Foresights

Most Technology Foresight projects conclude with a group of recommendations to the countries' governments about how these recommendations can support emerging technologies and fields of strategic research. The recommendations are generally classified within one of the following captions

 financing of investigation and development,

 development of specific technologies,

 Technology diffusion and operating conditions for the industry.

Technology Diffusion

A common recommendation is that there should be increased interaction between universities and research institutes on the one hand and the industry on the other. Another recommendation is that the government should support the diffusion of new, strategic technologies from the research sector to the industry sector.

Many countries point to IT as the field where the state should concentrate its efforts of technology diffusion.

Operating conditions for the Industry

Improve the conditions under which the industry and the private sector operate. This task frequently refers to the government as being most important in this connection, which is to support the development of a good innovation climate. Important areas for governmental initiatives and support are standards, laws and regulations, intellectual property protection, communications, financial infrastructure, general education, literacy, infrastructure adapted to smaller companies, environment, and participation in international organizations.

Outputs of the Technology Foresights

The TF projects carried out so far in several countries of the world have come to a series of important global mega tendencies that foresee how the world is going to develop socially and economically within a time frame of 10 to 0 years.

The following trends and tendencies are pointed out

 That technological development will be the key agent of change, and change will be faster and faster.

 The life cycles of the products will be shorter and shorter, and new knowledge networks will emerge.

 The operations of the national systems of innovation will be more and more decisive in the economic growth of the countries.

 The demands on education will increase, especially within technology and natural sciences.

Information technology will be the most important single technology, exposing science to new challenges and reducing the importance of geographical distance. In developing countries information technology is expected to dramatically influence the possibilities of growth. Biotechnology is another field of science, the importance and scope of which will increase. Globalization will get even more accentuated than it is today, and there will be free flow of information, investment capital, ideas, products and services between countries. The competitiveness of countries will largely be defined by their intellectual capital. International companies will offer products and services of high quality in all markets of the world. This will force local producers to enter into a process of constant development and improvement. The rate of economical growth in the industrialized countries will continue to be relatively low. Most countries will have a surplus of labour, and it is assumed that unemployment will remain at a relatively high level. Unemployment will particularly affect the unskilled and less educated segments of the work force. Many developing countries, especially in Asia, are expected to experience fast growth. It is predicted that by 010 China will be established as one of the main competitors in the world market. The proportion of women in the work force will increase, and a series of new systems and models for childcare and housing services will emerge. The governments' proportion of the GNP will diminish and the role of the state will change from direct intervention to provision of general framework, guidelines and the rules of the game.

The UNIDO/ICS Technology Foresight Programme

Having recognized the importance of Technology Foresight, UNIDO launched in 1 the TF Regional Programme with the objective to promote, encourage and support Technology Foresight Initiatives in the Region. More specifically through this Programme the mission of UNIDO is to became a permanent vehicle for a continuous, open and enhanced exchange of knowledge, expertise and best practices on Technology Foresight among Latin American and Caribbean Countries through the use and application of modern knowledge management techniques and advanced communication tools.

The following are key business drivers as those which will require a mainly technological response

ɨ Research and Development

ɨ Manufacturing

ɨ Outsourcing

ɨ Product Delivery

ɨ Customer and Markets

ɨ Reputation.

There are, of course, other key business drivers, but it was considered that these would not require a mainly technological response.

Technological Responses

The likely technological responses of the specialty chemical and pharmaceutical sub-sectors to the business drivers listed below

Table 1 - Technological Response of the speciality chemical sub-sector to key business drivers between now and 015

Business Driver Technological Response

Research and Development

Product Identification

Time-to-Market

Patent Extension Information and Communication Technologies (ICT)

ICT to obtain product/market intelligence

ICT to manage technology/project

Novel packaging/delivery technologies

Manufacturing

Complex/Pure Products

Increased Regulation

Cost Containment Novel process control and product monitoring technologies

Capacity to undertake biotransformations

ICT to manage regulatory process

Novel process control and product monitoring technologies

Greater automation

Outsourcing

Increasing opportunities

Food/drugs/electronics Flexible process technology

ICT integration with customer

Technologies to meet the specialty chemical needs of these industries

Product Delivery

Advanced Packaging Packaging technology compatible with customers process and regulatory requirements

Smart packaging/ease of customer use

Customer/Market

Niche Markets

Localised Products ICT to support globally dispersed customer base

Flexible process technologies that can be rapidly re-engineered for product localisation

Reputation

Ethical

Sustainable

Environmental ICT to increase transparency

Novel manufacturing technologies that exploit renewable feedstocks and minimise energy usage and waste

Novel technologies to reduce or eliminate waste

Table - Technological Response of the pharmaceutical sub-sector to key business drivers between now and 015

Business Driver Technological Response

Research and Development

Therapeutics

Rapid Discovery

Effectiveness

Time-to-Market

Patent Life Extension Bioinformatics

Combinatorial chemistry and rapid screening technologies

Combination therapies

Drug delivery and medical devices

ICT to facilitate integration of drug research and product development

Combination therapies

Novel manufacturing and formulation

Manufacturing

More Complex Activities/Systems

Increased Regulation

Cost Containment Fewer, more advanced, manufacturing facilities with state-of-the-art process control and product monitoring technologies

Outsourcing of selected steps

Integration of drug delivery systems into the manufacturing process

More links to Centres of Excellence

Incorporation of bio-catalysis and microbial techniques into chemical synthesis

Containment technologies and environmental control

Earlier new product transfer to manufacturing sites

Greater automation of processes and monitoring

ICT to optimise manufacturing processes

Customer/Markets

Demographics (ageing population)

Lower Cost Therapies and Care

Relationship with Customer Drug technologies to meet needs of aging population

Focused portfolio of drugs for treatment and management of families of related diseases

ICT to permit direct marketing to the General Practitioner (GP)

ICT to permit direct exchange of information with GP and with patient

Tailored drug delivery systems (formulation and device) that will facilitate the provision of non-residential, non-specialist health-care

Reputation

Ethical

Sustainable

Environmental ICT to increase transparency

Novel manufacturing technologies that exploit renewable feedstocks and minimise energy usage and waste

Novel technologies to reduce or eliminate waste

Thus not only foresight but also technological foresight is very essential for

the businessman to play well in the modern economy.

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