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Effects of the Year 000 Problem

Almost everything in the world is recorded or run by computer.

Electricity, communications, medicine, weapons, money, food, factories and

just about anything else you can think of will be effected by the year 000

Order custom research paper on Effects of the year 2000 problem

problem. The year 000 problem could be the biggest technological problem

the world may ever face. Some people are preparing for world wide crisis.

Others believe some lucky person will invent a small disc that will

eliminate the problem in less time that it takes a person to pop the disk

in their computer. Either way the world is spending billions of dollars

trying to prepare and solve the problem, and so far nobodys been able to

come across an exact solution.

What is the Year 000 Problem?

The Year 000 problem is more commonly referred to as the YK

problem or the Millennium bug. The YK problem has to deal with how

computers keep track of the date. In almost every system before 15 the

date that the computer kept was abbreviated. An example would be that 151

would be abbreviated as 51. So, as a result, computers will read 00 and

think its 100 and not 000. This seemingly small problem will result in a

loss of most records and information kept in computers causing a major

headache for government agencies and major businesses, not to mention all

home owners and other people. Gina Smith writes in a August 18 issue of

Popular Science about the fixing of the problem

You are probably wondering why the problem is so hart to fix. It isnt

Its just that theres so much to be fixed. Updating software to handle the

new century is sometimes a matter of culling through millions of lines of

code, and the finding and fixing every two-digit date reference. One

mistake and the entire operation may be unsuccessful (Smith 6).

What can the YK prblem effect?

On the home front people could be waking up to chaos. In June 18,

PC Computing featured an article where John C. Dvorak shares his thoughts

of what might happen on 1 January 18. He writes

The situation will not be easily corrected and many believe it will

collapse the economy. This will be worsened by municipal systems that will

cut off peoples gas, light, and water since they havent paid their bill

for 100 years. . .all the new car computer that monitor engines with real-

time computer system have date stamping that will fail at midnight, making

it impossible to start the car (Dvorak 4).

Anyone who lives in a cold climate wont appreciate not having any heat

during one of the coldest months of the year. Dvorak continues to go in

depth in how the first problems will create a domino effect and eventually

lead to the fall of the economy

As computer scheduling fails, the food distribution system will fall apart.

The homeless will flock to the farmlands looking for food only to be

butchered as trespassers, their bodies left to rot. Carrion will abound.

Disease will spread from the rotting corpses and be transferred to by packs

of wild dogs. . . . (Dvorak 4)

In January 17, PC Computing estimates that 10% of all businesses wont

survive the transition(Lyon 50). Because of the shutdown of businesses,

many people can expect to be out of a job come the first of January. If

people wake up and find themselves out of a job they may be prepared with a

savings to fall back on. Having an account in a bank could mean more

trouble. Because bank computers are linked through enormous networks, a

breakdown anywhere in the system could adversely affect hundreds of

institutions around the world(Consumer Reports 56). Its possible banks

could loose all records of customers accounts and going to the bank to get

money would be a joke.

The Department of Defense could put the security of its citizens

in jeopardy. Nuclear weapons could accidentally be set off killing millions

of people. Radar and other computer systems might fail causing out defense

system to be unaware of possible attack. In a 1 September 17 issue of

Science News Janet Raloff states

Recently, the Defense Department got a taste of what Headaches lie in

store, when a faulty year 000-related date calculation inappropriately

removed form inventory 0,000 items in DLAs(Defense Logistics Agency)

materiel management system. Correcting the problem took 400 hours to

fix(17).

Raloff went on to say that the DOD is at working on the problem and will

meet their deadline.

Below is a chart of worst case scenarios and what is likely to

happen come the turn of the century. Dante Chinni supplied the chart in a

June 17 issue of Newsweek.

Worst Scenario Likely to Happen

Airlines

At midnight, the nations air-traffic-control systems go dead.

Some planes lose the ability to navigate properly. Chaos in the skies.

Travelers get very familiar with the airport lounge. Airlines fleets stay

aloft, but delays abound. The bottom line Stay home and watch bowl games.

Manufacturing

Security systems leave workers locked outside the front gate.

Assembly lines stop moving. Those 1 models remain on showroom floors.

The big companies get their act together, but suppliers have problems that

slow shipments; 1 models stay on showroom floors.

Banking

The entire financial infrastructure, including the stock market,

goes haywire,. Balances, records and transactions are lost. Some patrons

may be temporarily shut out of their accounts. Electronic wire transfers

may be disrupted. It may be best to keep a few dollars under the

mattress.

Medical

As the ball drops in Times Square, hospital machinery, like IV

units and cardiac monitors, suddenly shuts down. The last thing

patients see is Dick Clark. Hospital paperwork, billing and

patient records get fouled up. Suppliers loose records; tongue depressors

become scarce.

Nuclear Power

Aooouga! Aooouga! Control chip opens the wrong release valve.

Radiation problems make Three Mile Island look like a picnic. Safety systems

suffer small problems. Minor malfunctions cause short-term shutdowns.

Stock up on candles and flashlight batteries.

Military

Defense systems weakened by software snafus. Global positioning

satellites get lost, leaving the nation vulnerable. Some old

battlefield equipment is junked rather than fixed. High-tech systems

get even more temperamental. Faltering programs order $00 hammers.

Government

Feds lose track of government-benefits recipients. The IRS figures

your tax bill is equal to the national debt. Deadly viruses kept under

computer lock are released. Though it got a late start on the

bug, most major systems are intact. Some benefits checks are late. Techno-

veep Gore Takes a hit.(Newsweek 57)

Solutions and Cost

No body has come up with a definite solution thats fast and cost

effective that will stop the YK problem from causing damage. Instead, big

corporations, government agencies, etc…have to spend millions on groups of

computer programmers. Programmers work around the clock trying to find the

two digits, which make up the date, among the millions of lines of code and

reprogram them. Jeff Titcomb describes why the process is so painstaking

It seems that in most mainframe programs, the date appears more often than

MASH reruns on television-about once every 50 lines of code. Typically,

its hard to find those particular lines, because the original programs,

often written in the ancient COBOL computer language, are quirky and

undocumented. After all that analysis, you have to figure out how to

rewrite the lines to correctly process the date. Only then comes the most

time-consuming step testing the rewritten program(Newsweek 54).

Companys with enough money are hiring as many programmers they can hoping

to get the problem solved before its too late. Peter de Jager, a computer

brain trying to solve the YK problem, warns business owners If youre not

changing code by November of this year(17), you will not get this thing

done on time-its that simple. We still dont get it(Newsweek 57). Neil

Gross states

U.S. companies will spend a total of $14 billion on outside consultants

and programmers. . . Throw in new hardware and software purchases , and the

worldwide bill could balloon to $600 billion(Gross 41).

Many people are taking special precautions at home in preparation

for the turn of the century dealing with money, water, heat etc. Its

recommended that you should keep any reciept or make a hard copy of any

money related transaction. A easy way to do this would be to keep track of

these records on your computer. (If your PC is less than two years old it

will have no problem dealing with the YK problem.) Some people who live in

colder climates recommend stocking up on fire wood to provide heat if the

furnaces dont work. Others are putting away a supply of water in case the

pumps fail to work. Some people are even hiding money at home, just in case

they need something to fall back on.

As one can see, the thought of YK problem arouses some terrifying

scenarios. People should keep up with the progress being made concerning

the YK problem so they have and idea what to expect. The effects I

mentioned are just a fraction of all the different possibilities. People

are working day and night trying to solve the problem while the year 000

is just around the corner. These same people are warning us to prepare and

expect the worst. In the end, the YK problem may cause society to collapse.

On the other hand, the YK might be something we laugh about on the evening

news and January 1, 000. Nobody knows!

Dvorak, John C. Apocalypse When? PC Computing June 18 4.

Gross, Neil. Year 000 The Meters Running. Business Week December

17 41.

Hayashi, Alden M. Millennium Bug Zapper. Scientific American June 18

6.

Hogan, Mike. Countdown to Crisis. PC Computing January 18 50-51.

Kagan, Julia. The Year 000 problem. Consumer Reports August 18 56-57.

Raloff, Janet. DODs year 000 vulnerabilities. Science news 1

September 17 17.

Smith, Gina. The Millennial Mess. Popular Science February 17 6.

Smith, Robert. The Day the World Crashes. Newsweek June 17 54, 57,

5.

Wilkinson, Alec. Millennial Malaise The New Yorker 1 January 17 7.

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